Several months ago, just prior to the new NCES data that was released, I posted enrollment data from six states that suggested a levelling off of homeschool growth.
Then, only a few weeks later, NCES came out with data that suggested continued dramatic growth in homeschooling!
Now, finally, I’ve got all of the available state data in one place, accompanied by convenient graphs that make trends very easy to observe, followed by references for where it all came from. The final product was too complicated to post in the normal manner, so my handy workstudy student Philip Martin helped me put it together into a PDF.
Here it is: Home School Data
Before I draw inferences from this data, let me reiterate some of the limitations of state data:
1. Data collection protocols vary widely from state to state and even within a state in given years depending on who is collecting it. Some districts are very conscientious in their efforts to get an accurate count of homeschoolers. Many are not, largely because there is no financial incentive for local and state government to keep records on homeschooling. As researcher Eric Isenberg put it in an article I review here, “Haphazard data collection occurs because the burden of reporting homeschooling generally falls on the families rather than school districts. Districts gain no reimbursement from homeschooled children in their district and generally have little incentive to collect accurate information.”
2. Several states have more than one way of homeschooling legally, and they don’t always count every one of these alternative strategies. For example, in states where homeschoolers can register as private schools, they might be counted in the private school tally, not the homeschool one. Or they might not. Or it might change from year to year depending on who’s doing the counting.
3. Finally, everyone acknowledges that even the best state data doesn’t get an accurate count because there are an unknown number of underground homeschooling families who, for whatever reason, choose not to inform the government of their actions.
With all that said it is not surprising that researchers to date have put very little stress on this state data. It does not give us anything close to an accurate tally of the number of people homeschooling in a given state, though in some states it may come close. I’m interested in it for one reason only.
The reason is that I’m still puzzled over whether or not homeschooling is presently growing at a rapid rate. My subjective sense based on anecdote, impression, and trends here in Pennsylvania is that homeschooling is not growing as fast now as it did in the 1980s and 1990s. But the 2007 NCES data, as I mentioned, showed significant growth since 2003. Given that these state numbers are not accurate, I still wonder where the trend lines are pointing.
The answer is easy to find if you look at the graphs. Philip and I determined that 17 States had enough data to make meaningful graphs. 8 trend up (AR, FL, NE, NH, NC, UT, VA, WVA). 6 have held pretty flat for the past few years (CO, ME, MD, MN, MT, WA). 3 trend down (CT, PA, WI).
One obvious inference: the states reporting increases are all, possibly excepting FL (a key swing state), so-called “red” states, or Republican strongholds, while the states holding flat or reporting decreases are all, excepting Colorado and Montana, “blue,” or Democrat strongholds. Perhaps that is just a coincidence, or perhaps homeschooling is growing faster among Republicans than among Democrats. With the great majority of homeschoolers being conservative Protestants (often called the Republican “base”) this inference seems plausible.
It also squares with another NCES 2007 find–that more parents report religious motivations for homeschooling (83% in 2007 vs. 72% in 2003). In my own writing on recent trends in homeschooling I have stressed the widening appeal of homeschooling to groups of people outside of the traditional homeschool demographic. The 2007 NCES data caused me to re-think that stress, and in its small way this survey of state data confirms in me the need to re-think.
Here’s my hypthesis now, and it is just speculative. The large cohort of liberal and secular homeschoolers of the 1970s inspired by John Holt have now largely passed from the scene. While it is the case that some celebrities, child athletes, jet-setters, kids with peanut allergies, ethnic minorities, and other Americans not readily associated with conservative Christianity are turning to homeschooling, they are not doing so fast enough to replace the older “hippie” type. (I don’t mean to suggest that minorities, kids with peanut allergies, etc. can’t also be conservative Christians. I’m just talking about motives for homeschooling and the stereotypical homeschool demographic.)
Meanwhile, Conservative Christians continue to turn to homeschooling in large numbers. So while I think I’m right to say that there are now more kinds of people choosing homeschooling than ever before, nevertheless the movement as a whole looks more conservative and more Christian than it ever has. Homeschooling may be growing more diverse and more homogeneous at the same time.
Again, that may be totally wrong, but it’s the best sense I can make of what the recent data seems to be showing. Any and all comments on this welcome!
A second, fully revised edition of my 2008 book Homeschool: An American History, was published in March of 2017. 
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There has certainly been a shift/split/polarization in the “conservative Christian” camps of homeschooling recently. So, I think you’re probably right [smile].
~Luke
Thank you very much for collecting and making this data accessible. I checked WV’s stats in your file and wanted to let you know that they are available at the WVDE site for 07-08 school year: http://wveis.k12.wv.us/ses/StatSum/NonPub_enroll.cfm
(my contact at the WVDE says:
You can access the data at: http://wveis.k12.wv.us/nclb/pub/
once there click on the statistical summary graphic …….NonPublic School Information……..Enrollment in NonPublic Schools. )
WVHEA tracks homeschool stats for the state here http://wvhea.org/county_stats.htm. We get the data from the WVDE, although I did supplement this year by calling one county whose numbers were not included in the state’s data for some reason. I also verified numbers from a couple of counties where the homeschool registration numbers swung widely in recent years or in one case where the number was very large compared to other counties.
As to your sense that homeschooling is even more dominated by conservative Christians than before, this matches exactly my own observations of homeschooling here in WV (and those of friends with younger kids). Admittedly this is the Bible Belt so it could be that the population is just skewed that way anyway. But the founders of WVHEA were indeed mostly “hippie” back-to-the-landers, and they have moved on, as you say, although those first few intrepid homeschooled kids are now having families of their own and I know of at least one back-to-the-land grandma who is very motivated to homeschool her grandchild.
But the increase in WV homeschool numbers may also be due in part to the school system shunting some kids with problems into homeschooling. So say some attendance directors anyway. These are typically transient homeschoolers in that they are only out of the system for a year or two. They’re not necessarily committed to homeschooling as a lifestyle.
Thanks BKocsis! The PDF above now has the updated WVA data included.
With only 16 states’ data, it seems to hard to claim that *all* state homeschool data is in one place. Florida, which has shown steady growth in homeschooling for the last ten years and certainly has enough data for meaningful documentation, is not included. Data can be found for our state at http://www.floridaschoolchoice.org/information/home_education/ .
Perhaps a call for resources and documentation from others in nonrepresented states might net more available statistical information to include?
In Florida, the growth of homeschooling does not appear to be connected to religion, nor, do the results of last year’s Tapestry of Homeschool survey, which looked at responses from nearly 1000 homeschoolers nationwide, suggest that’s the main reason for homeschooling.
Although, as you point out, it’s quite possible that this is as much a reflection of diversity, as well.
Theresa,
Thanks for the Florida link. It took some searching from the link you gave but I did find the data at the site. We missed it last time we checked. When I get time I’ll add Florida to my document. I went ahead and added it to my text above. Florida doesn’t fit well at all into my red/blue state analysis, for it’s probably the most evenly divided state in the country in terms of party affiliation, as I’m sure we all remember from the 2000 election fiasco. It went for Bush again in 2004 but for Obama this past year. In addition, Florida has by far the most comprehensive public homeschool program in the country (the Florida Virtual School). It was unclear to me from the data at the Florida Department of Education website whether or not students enrolled in FVS were included in the totals. If so, Florida’s growth may say more about the growing appeal of publicly funded distance education than about independent homeschooling…
I should add that we did call many other state departments of education and were told that they didn’t have data on homeschooling. I really do think we’ve got everything that’s available, but if you know of more that we missed please share, for I do want to be as comprehensive as possible.
I’m glad you found the data and will be able to add it. I can’t speak to your “red/blue state analysis” really — I think it can be divisive and quite possibly misleading to try to reduce homeschooling into any two colors, be they black and white or red and blue. I think if anything, homeschooling is a largely purple choice — Libertarian in many respects, sometimes Socialist, always personal.
However, it’s incorrect to identify Florida Virtual School as a “public homeschool program.” It’s a state online public middle and high school that permits any state student — public, private or homeschooled — to enroll in classes. Students do not receive diplomas from the program, and enrollees maintain whatever educational designation they come to the program with.
LIFE keeps a comparative chart of “Home Based Learning Options in Florida” on our website at http://www.learningis4everyone.org/content/view/90/39/1/1/ to help differentiate between the many options we have here.
Further, the statistics page on the DOE website clarifies the definition of a homeschooler in FL, citing the relevant statute, and explaining how a homeschool program is established in FL, making it fairly clear how the numbers of homeschooled students are derived. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if homeschooled students are enrolled in FLVS , anymore than if they’re enrolled in Oak Meadow or Clonlara; the numbers come from the numbers of students who have followed the state statute to create a home education program, and does not even include families homeschooling through a private school program.
The publicly funded distance education aspect of homeschooling in Florida may be a much enjoyed and well utilized aspect of our experience, but it is not where the numbers the state uses are derived. If you want to figure in the true number of “Home based learners” in FL (who consider themselves homeschoolers) , you’d have to figure out how many are using the private school options, as well, and then separate them out from regular brick and mortar private schools. But the actual number of registered homeschool students and families is what the FL DOE figures provide.
I can well imagine how difficult it is to get reliable, and indeed, any figures from many state DOEs , so I appreciate the difficulty of your effort. But because it is so hard to find reliable data from all 50 states, that would also suggest that with less than 50% of state data, it is also difficult to draw any real conclusions about homeschooling generally.
Perhaps it would be helpful to create a list of the states you don’t have data for and enlist the assistance of homeschoolers in those states to help track down more information?
A rising trend that is confounding the stats on homeschooling is enrollment by homeschoolers in cyber-charter schools. I believe that is why the numbers are falling here in PA. Scores of families I know are now enrolled in these, but they still consider themselves “homeschoolers” and participate in homeschool co-ops ( where they are allowed). They, however, would not be counted in PA numbers, but they would in NCES.
Anecdotally, I think homeschooling is still on the rise (I’ve just returned from traveling overseas to meet with homeschoolers in central Europe) but hybrid forms of education now available online are blurring the lines and the numbers.
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